America's withdrawal from Triple INF, JCPOA, OST and increased entropy in the international system
After the US withdrew from the JCPOA and Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces treaty (INF) now it's time for the Open Skies Treaty (OST). Three types of international agreement which are common in security-military nature. Washington's justification for withdrawing from the treaty as a key treaty on increasing transparency and trust in transatlantic relations, as well as Russia's security-military relations with Europe and the United States, it is the same kind of previous justification. In connection with the withdrawal from this treaty, in terms of the current team of US Security and foreign policy decision making, the problem is that Russia has long violated the treaty, just as it repeatedly violates a Ban on the intermediate-range nuclear missiles. In the same way that Iran did not adhere to the JCPOA and violates the agreement. In the same way that China did not adhere to the trade agreement with the United States and violates it. In the same way that Europe violates the NATO financial agreement and ......
But in addition to this common flaw in all previous agreements, another common point the Open Skies Treaty (OST) with the two previous agreements mentioned in this note that is, " JCPOA" and the "a ban on the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces treaty (INF) " are in a special sentence from Trump. Donald Trump on 21 May 2020 in response to questions from reporters at the White House about why America is likely to get out of the "open skies treaty" has said: “I think what’s going to happen is we’re going to pull out and they’re going to come back and want to make a deal.”
This is the same specific logic of the transaction in international relations from Trump's point of view which expected based on that, Iran demanding renegotiate about its nuclear program, North Korea demanding renegotiate about its military and nuclear capabilities and Russia demanding renegotiate about its military treaties. On the other hand, trade relations with Europe, Canada and China to be reset in favor of the United States.
In terms of timing, the problem for the White House team is the change in global conditions relative to the time of ratification of these agreements and treaties. This topic is explicitly mentioned in a statement, of the State Department America "With a clear look at any agreement from today's realities lens, any agreement will be evaluated and it will be decided whether is this agreement in the interest of the United States or not". That's why Trump, after evaluating allies and key partners, has concluded that it is no longer in the United States' interest to abide by the "Open Skies Treaty." in terms of timing, what changes have taken place in the international system under which Trump has come to the conclusion that he must withdraw from most previous agreements and treaties can be the basis for independent and detailed research, but the focus of this note is to provide a brief, temporary answer to the question of the implications of Trump's US strategy for withdrawing from security-military treaties and agreements.
Considering the level of macro analysis and contrary to the optimistic views that believe that with Trump's departure from the White House, the United States will return to these treaties and agreements and security cooperation will be pursued at the global level to an acceptable form, I believe that following this strategy so far, not for two specific reasons, namely "Trust issue" and "become procedural measures" not only will it affect the short-term status of the parties to the agreement, but it will also have a major impact on the state of international security relations and the increase in entropy in the international system. breaking and decomposing of the global security system, endangering peace, instilling of doubts about international legal norms and challenging the key components of the strategic stability of the cold postwar space, this will only be part of the affected of this strategy. In my opinion, this strategy will not only change and increase the nature of regional and international order and understanding of the threat of effective international countries bilaterally and multilaterally, but will also strengthen the element of resistance to future security-military agreements.