Assessment of Threats and the Reality of US Relations with North Korea


Since the middle of 2017 and after North Korea carried out nuclear and missile tests, the new American administration started mounting stronger attacks and more serious criticism of Pyongyang. As a result, the crisis over North Korea turned into a major security challenge in the Far East and within the strategic domain that includes China, Japan, Russia, South Korea, and the United States. However, the gravity of that crisis has been reduced to some extent with the lapse of time and many experts currently believe that the involved parties are very possible to start negotiations aimed at finding a solution. The present paper looks into the main reasons that have caused this crisis to ebb.
 
Why North Korea crisis has ebbed?
Making balance
The ongoing crisis on the Korean Peninsula, whose main pivot is North Korea, can be analyzed on the basis of two theories. The first theory is “power against power” or the principle of deterrence. By continuing its missile and nuclear tests, North Korea has reached a level of missile and nuclear capability, which can stir fear in the United States about the outcomes of any preemptive attack against North Korea or even make Washington concerned about a retaliatory attack by Pyongyang. The second theory in this regard is the “conflict of heterogeneous powers.” According to this theory, the weaker country has nothing to lose in the face of a bigger power and may take any explosive and unpredictable measures. After North Korea tested a hydrogen bomb followed by a flurry of missile tests, many experts are of the opinion that North Korea is now a nuclear power. In the meantime, North Korea is possible to have a large stock of nuclear warheads, which can arm the country’s ballistic missiles and this is why disarming North Korea would not be possible through diplomacy or use of force. At the same time, there is no reliable military option to guarantee that the United States would not be harmed by North Korea’s possible missile attacks. Therefore, as the world’s superior power, the United States is concerned about possible destructive outcomes of any suicidal measure taken by North Korea against its military bases in the region. According to these two theories, the United States sees itself totally stalled in the whirlpool of North Korea.
In fact, the United States and its allies in East Asia are currently devoid of any suitable tool to counter North Korea and their sole measure against Pyongyang has been imposition of international sanctions and threat of military action, which in practice, has had no benefit. Therefore, Washington has reached the conclusion that the only way to counter North Korea’s threats is to engage in negotiations with this country.
 
The measures and policies of South Korea
One of the important promises given by the new president of South Korea, Moon Jae-in, during his election campaigns was to boost relations with North Korea. In fact, his promise was incompatible with Washington’s views on Pyongyang at that time and contravened the United States’ initiative to deploy missile defense systems to South Korea. From the viewpoint of South Korea, any escalation of the crisis and war between this country and North Korea will have horrible ramifications. Simulations were done a few years ago about the possibility of a new war on the Korean Peninsula, which showed that an estimated fatality rate of three million people could be the result of a limited and short-term conflict between the two sides in that region. The reason behind that estimate was essential changes that have taken place in conditions on the Korean Peninsula and the stockpile of very advanced and modern weapons both on the peninsula and in the Pacific region. Such advanced weapons are by no means comparable to weapons used in the Korean War of the 1950s. As for the economic losses of such a conflict, most assessments have reached the conclusion that the financial and economic damage resulting from a new war on the Korean Peninsula would be tremendous and this is in addition to the subsequent contamination as a result of possible nuclear fallout. All told, these facts have made South Korea move very cautiously in this regard. And it was also due to these reasons that South Korea answered positive to North Korea’s demand for negotiations and the two countries’ sportspersons marched under the same flag during the inauguration ceremony of PyeongChang 2018 Olympic Winter Games.
On the other hand, the position taken by the South Korean people, who decided not to support a sharper stance against their northern neighbor, was one of the most important reasons that convinced Trump to scrap his plan to launch a military strike against North Korea, because such an attack would not have been supported by the domestic front in South Korea. In other words, the people of South Korea are by no means ready for a full-fledged war. They have been living in conditions of economic prosperity for many decades. Therefore, any attack on North Korea by the United States will lead to profound division in the Korean society. It must be noted that there are close family relations between people of South Korea and their peers in North Korea despite the hostility that exists between their authorities, and there is some sort of convergence between the two countries’ people. As a result, before any war is started, the domestic front in South Korea needs to be prepared for it.  It is due to these reasons that the presidents of the United States and South Korea have agreed to delay a joint military drill, which the two countries were expected to stage in February 2018.
 
China and Russia mounting pressure on North Korea
During recent years, the United States has been focusing on three general solutions in order to stop further development of North Korea’s nuclear program, which included negotiations, military action and convincing China to exert pressure on North Korea. As for what the United States expects from China, it must be noted that China on its own cannot ask North Korea to destroy its nuclear arms at a time that Pyongyang considers those weapons as its only defensive shield against Washington and its allies. China, on the other hand, is not willing to do this on ground of its national security. Meanwhile, Beijing is also concerned about the flood of refugees following possible collapse of North Korea. Equally, China is also afraid of the chaos that would follow regime change in North Korea and the risk of uncontrolled access to its neighbor’s nuclear, chemical and biological weaponry. Of course, the biggest worry for China is to see a united Korea, which would be an ally to the United States, in its neighborhood in which case American forces would be knocking at China’s door. Under these conditions, since Japan in Far East is an ally to the United States and also in view of Washington’s growing relations with India to the west, China would see itself under complete siege of the United States. In addition, it is true that China and Russia consider the Korean peninsula as an arena to challenge the United States, none of them is willing to see a nuclearized North Korea and uncontrollable unrest in this region.
From the viewpoint of China, turbulence in security conditions in this region and subsequent intervention by such interventionist powers as Russia and the United States will restrict its strategic breathing room. In addition, China wants to prevent a war along its southern borders, which can lead to spillover of millions of people into its territory. Therefore, since the outset of escalation of the crisis between the United States and North Korea, the Chinese president has announced his readiness to cooperate with both sides to find a rational solution to put an end to the crisis over North Korea. China, similar to Russia, voted positive for a United Nations Security Council resolution that ratcheted up international sanctions against North Korea. At any rate, China is trying to get its ally to the negotiating table.
When it comes to Russia, Moscow has never been, and will never be, positive about the United States getting closer to its borders. Therefore, a reason why Russia is trying to keep this crisis in check and get closer to North Korea in order to convince this country to sit at the negotiating table is that the United States would not occupy North Korea. To do this, Russia, along with China, has joined six-party peace talks with North Korea in a bid to manage the crisis in this region. From the viewpoint of high-ranking Russian officials there are a number of factors, which have posed major security threats to Moscow and its ally, China. These factors include continued military presence of the United States in East Asia – including through deployment of American missile defense systems in South Korea – and extensive joint military drills carried out by the United States, South Korea and Japan, in addition to remarkable increase in the U.S. military presence in the Asia-Pacific region 
 
Both sides fearful of crisis escalation 
During recent years, North Korea has been under heavy sanctions and has been grappling with many economic problems. In fact, the economic sanctions have provided the country with a justification to move toward developing nuclear deterrence. On the other hand, the United States and its allies in the region consider these efforts by North Korea not to be for defensive purposes, but see them as aggressive measures. At the beginning of the ongoing crisis between the two countries, the world witnessed strongly-worded verbal exchanges between the two countries’ leaders. However, although the leaders of both countries are known to be audacious leaders, the leader of North Korea knows that despite his threats against the United States, he will not be the victor at the end of the day, and in case of a missile attack on America, his country will not be able to counter the United States’ retaliatory measures. On the other hand, Trump is also well aware that any confrontation with Pyongyang will be of unprecedented importance to the region and may end in a full-fledged war. Therefore, both sides know that if they choose the option of going to war, both their countries and people will pay a very high price. At the same time, both sides have their own specific concerns about the reaction that other regional powers, especially China and Russia, may show.
 
Bibliography
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4. Mohammad Reza Yousefnejad, “North Korea’s nuclear test and East Asia crisis,” IRNA, September 5, 2017
5. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, “Is preemptive strike on North Korea a wise choice?” Pars Today, May 1, 2017
6. “North Korea and South Korea finally agree on negotiations,” Deutsche Welle; January 5, 2018 
 
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